mail@davemoral.es

It has been a long and winding road for our nation.  I am sitting down with my family, shortly, to experience the night’s election returns.  Anticipation is high.  My sense of pride and American Identity is has rarely been more pronounced.  Below are my thoughts on how the evening plays out.

11:05 pm : I’m happy for the nation, happy for the history made tonight, but I have sky-high expectations.  Don’t let us down Mr. President.

10:55 pm : The polls in Virginia the night before the election averaged an Obama lead of 4.4%.  If Obama holds his 1% lead and wins Virginia, that means that the Bradley effect in the state was over 3%.

10:45 pm : Heading to bed as soon as Obama get to the 270 in called races.  Have to make sure he is the presumptive winner before I call it a night.

10:05 pm : Hard to belive how close Virginia is. 1,400 votes between them, unreal. With 78.56% of the vote counted:

• Barack Obama : 1,272,986, 49.49%
• John McCain : 1,271,575, 49.44%

9:35 pm : Ohio has been called for Obama.  Congratulations to our newly elected President Obama.

9:20 pm : Virginia is still razor thin, but I am encouraged to see McCain up by 1.2% with 62% of the vote in.  There is still a bunch of the rural vote to come in and only 25% of the vote from Northern Virginia is in.  Think my prediction of McCain winning by less than 1% might hold.

9:00 pm : If Virginia or North Carolina is called soon this night can be over.  An Obama victory in either of these states and it will end up being a shorter evening than I at first predicted.

8:45 pm : I only hope my prediction of PA being decided by less than 2%, I am growing less and less confident with the passage of time.

8:30 pm : ABC called PA for Obama with 0% of the vote counted.  CNN sitting and not making prediction.  That was gutsy of ABC, hope they don’t end up with egg on their face.

8:15 pm : The kids (three boys including David Matthew) are aged 7, 8 and 10.  They are all passionately wrapped up in this rooting.  All the numbers zipping by have the kids on a roller coaster.  They don’t understand the complexity of the Electoral College or exit polling-driven projections, but the childhood innocence is wonderful to watch.

8:05 pm : Nothing surprising in the 8pm closing.  We are down visiting Rhonda’s sister and family in Virginia Beach.  David is rooting for John McCain along with Rhonda’s sister’s kids.  Funny to watch, social pressure and group think in effect.

8:00 pm : South Carolina being called early for McCain might mean that African-American turnout was not the record predicted…. perhaps.  ABC was running a story a little while back that pegged it at 13% which was only 1% higher than 2004.  Interesting developments.

7:25 pm : CNN’s real-time rotoscoping technique for one of their correspondent (their “hologram”) was very lame and not very good.

7:15 pm : Jim Gilmore never stood a chance.  Warner is very popular, his administration is viewed in generally positive light.  On the other hand many voters, myself included, view Gilmore in a darker light.  He was not forthright with voters and the citizens of Virginia about the phase-out of a car tax.  This tax cut ended up costing the Commonwealth three times more than he promised when he ran for governor in 1998.  This revenue shortfall is a key source for the fiscal challenges facing Virginia ten years later.  When you base your entire campaign around a single issue, off-shore drilling, you can not expect voters to rally to your banner in great numbers.

7:05 pm : Woot, Mark Warner is our new senator.  Very satisfied, he is a good man, a good fit for Washington.

7:00 pm : Here comes the 7pm poll closings….

7:00 pm : It was so fantastic to have the national attention fixed on Virginia this election cycle after us not mattering in election after election.

6:45 pm : Interesting, McCain carried 72% of white evangelicals, only 6% off Bush high. Might be a good sign for the campaign.

6:45 pm : Trying to imagine the spectacle of a million people in Chicago celebrating if the night goes their way.

6:35 pm : Anyone else notice that the market was up big today in anticipation of the election?  Up 305 points.

6:30 pm : Looks like my gut impression might be right from earlier in the day, think the national vote will turn out 52% Obama and 47% McCain.

6:30 pm : Wolf needs to step aside and let Anderson Cooper take over…

6:20 pm : Interesting, now reports of non-record turnout in PA.  That is an interesting development if true.

6:20 pm : Woot, CNN unveiling some new technology eye candy…. very cool real-time 3D superimposed over the set.  Very slick.

6:10 pm : Looks like Drudge is keeping his habit of leaking exit polls ahead of polls actually closing.  In 2000, and again in 2004, he ran raw numbers, spoiling the results ahead of the major networks.  Drudge is asserting that Obama is in for a big night and the numbers show him up by 15% in PA.  We shall see how it plays out.  My gut is in a similar place.

Drudge claiming:

EXIT POLLS CLAIM 'OBAMA +15' IN PA... DEVELOPING...
TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT CLOSE: FL, IN, OH...
MCCAIN KEEPING AZ... DEVELOPING...

Also looks like my beloved Commonwealth of Virginia really dropped the ball on elections this year.  Massive numbers of calls and complaints making their way into the media about problems in urban and suburban Virginia.  I experienced the same kind of screw ups earlier today.  Reports of very long lines, broken machines, wet ballots, just all around screw ups.  Very upset.

6:00 pm : Jack Cafferty is an air bag who should not be on TV.  He is far from an impartial journalist and an embarrassment to a quality organization like CNN.

5:55 pm : Five minutes to go until the show gets on the road, first polls close in five…

5:45 pm : Conversation on exit polling.  62% of voters listed economic issues as the top driving issue behind their vote.  Only 9% listed terrorism as top motivation.  Bill Bennett just made an excellent point, not enough credit is being passed to current administration for lack of second, domestic terrorist attack after 9/11.  I am deeply concerned how quickly Americans seem to have forgotten over overlooked the systemic threat that terrorism and rogue states pose to international commerce and freedom.

5:35 pm : Rudy is being interview by Wolf Blitzer, he would have made a better candidate than John McCain in my opinion.  I would have been more excited about voting for him as an affirmation of his record as mayor and a federal prosecutor.

5:30 pm : Very troubled to see the reports of voter suppression on both sides.  Reports on Drudge and Fox News of New Black Panthers intimidating poll watchers and potential voters.

5:25 pm : TV on now, laptop powered up, CNN running in the background. David Matthew is finishing his nightly reading assignment (he goes to a private school and his school was not closed like many public ones today).  As I posted to Facebook earlier today, I will be satisfied regardless of the outcome this evening.  I, quite literly made up my mind on the presidential race while I was standing in line.  Both Senators are good men, with good ideas, each being greater positives than negatives.  America will make history this evening and I am proud to be an American and proud of our republic.

5:15 pm : It has been a long day.  Rhonda, David Matthew and I showed up to our polls at 6:30 am.  Hundreds of people (perhaps 600-800) were in line in front of us.  Two hours later our ballots were cast, yet not without issue.  The electronic voting machine our county uses (WinVote) are buggy.  My machine presented me with options for president, but no options for senate and congress.  Mistakenly my vote was recorded without my ability to record my preference for these additional offices.  After much debate with election officials I was permitted to re-vote on a different machine.  The most concerning aspect of this incident was the discovery that this same machine had been acting up by left in service all morning.  Election officials, from my observations, made no effort to remove or roll back the error ballot, merely notating on a written form.  I remain suspicious that two votes for president were entered for me.